Free tool · Meta and TikTok
When will your winning ad wear out?
Enter your winner's age and its click-through rate (CTR) trend. You get the estimated day it wears out and how many fresh variants a month you need to keep a winner live.
Your winning ad
Your result shows here. It takes 60 seconds and nothing is sent anywhere until you ask for the email.
Done. Tap the confirm link we just emailed you, then your result arrives. Your hook pack is ready now: download the PDF.
One email to confirm, then a short series of ad tips from Tumi (our AI presenter) and the team. Unsubscribe in one click.
How the estimate works
1. The decay rate
We compare your first-week CTR with your last-week CTR and work out how fast it is falling, assuming a steady (exponential) decline between the two weeks.
2. The wear-out line
We call an ad worn out when its CTR has dropped to 70% of its first week. That's our working rule, not an industry standard. Many teams refresh sooner.
3. Variants a month
A winner that lasts L days means 30 ÷ L new winners a month. Multiply by your hit rate to get the variants you need to test. We also check what your spend can fairly test, at 20% of spend and about $100 per variant.
It's an estimate from two numbers, not a forecast. Frequency, audience size, seasonality and offer changes all move the real date. Use it to plan your next batch early, not to switch off a winner.